What exactly is a tipping point—and how can we better understand it across different systems? Climate Scientist Avit Bhowmik at Karlstad University contributed to a new scientific publication that addresses growing confusion around the concept of tipping points, which is widely used to describe abrupt and potentially irreversible changes in complex systems such as the climate, ecosystems, and societies.
“While the concept is increasingly used, it is not always clearly defined. This can make it harder to identify and respond to real systemic risks,” says Avit Bhowmik.
A clearer definition of tipping points
In the article Integrating tipping point concepts across diverse systems, the authors provide a cross-disciplinary synthesis of the literature and identify three key characteristics that define tipping dynamics:
- Self-reinforcing feedbacks
- Threshold behaviour
- Persistence of change
The study also identifies several priorities for future research:
- Moving beyond simplified, single-threshold models
- Developing early warning indicators across systems
- Understanding cascading effects between interconnected systems
- Integrating climate, ecological, and social feedbacks
From climate systems to society
Tipping points are often associated with climate systems, such as melting ice sheets or changes in ocean circulation. However, the study highlights that similar dynamics can also occur in social and socio-technical systems—for example in energy transitions, policy change, or shifts in public behaviour.
The findings are particularly relevant in the context of accelerating climate action. A clearer understanding of tipping dynamics can help policymakers, researchers, and practitioners better navigate complex transformations.
“Climate change is not only about gradual change—it is also about the risk of sudden shifts, but also the opportunity for rapid positive change. Understanding tipping points can help us act more effectively,” says Avit Bhowmik.
