As COP30 negotiations are at a full pace in Belém, a new analysis of the past decade of climate action paints a picture of critical failure. Climate researcher Avit Bhowmik from Karlstad University warns if this trend continues we will end up in an unmanageable overshoot risking the mere resilience of human civilization.
The Earth League, an alliance of leading climate scientists like Johan Rockström and John Schellnhuber, has just published an analysis of the climate action space since the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015. The results show that the past decade of climate action critically failed to safegauard our climate and planet to the extent that we now risk an unmanageable overshoot. Centre for Societal Risk researcher Avit Bhowmik contributed to this analysis which has been published in the journal One Earth.
Escalating Global Risks and Societal Impacts
Global greenhouse gas emissions are constantly on the rise. Seven of the nine planetary boundaries have now been breached. Global warming, ocean acidification, biodiversity loss are now at an alarming stage triggering unpredictable feedbacks from the Earth system to further accelerate these changes. Social and economic inequalities are magnified. Job losses, health impacts, food and water insecurity, and climate-driven migration and displacement threaten livelihoods and deepen poverty. Extreme weather events disrupt infrastructure and food systems, worsening malnutrition and health outcomes among children, pregnant women, and other vulnerable populations. The COVID19 pandemic caused 7 million reported deaths worldwide, and we see a rise in authoritarianism and nationalism. These effects critically undermine the progress on Sustainable Devlopment Goals and deepen the risk for resilience of human civilization.
Pathways to a Manageable Climate Recovery
Yet, the researchers argue, our collective will can bridge the gap between knowledge and action to safeguard life-support on Earth through a manageable recovery from climate overshoot. This will first and foremost require: (1) a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels alongside a scale-up of renewables to prevent an energy shortfall; (2) a transformation of the food system from a net carbon source to a sink, while protecting biodiversity and meeting global nutritional needs for a growing population.
- Read the One Earth commentary: https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2590332225003537
