Quantitative Risk Assessment- Feasibility, Objectivity and Transparency

This project, financed by the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, MSB, aims to explore the applicability of the governmental acency's north american counterpart: the Federal Emergency Management Agency, FEMA's HAZUS methodology for Sweden and Swedish conditions.

The number of damages and economic losses from floods has increased globally and in Sweden. Factors such as climate change, continued urbanisation, population increase and economical growth are expected to increase exposure to flood consequences. Taken together floods are a threat to humans, the environment and society.

Local, regional and national governmental agencies have a great responsibility to prevent, reduce ad manage societal risks such as floods. Resources are however limited and choices and priorizations must be made when it comes to what risks to prevent and how to manage this as efficiently as possible. In Sweden standardized and practical tools for quantitative (economical) risk assessments of natural events are more or less lacking. In the US however there is long experience of using quantitative analyses as a tool to help decision makers when implementing risk reducing measures for natural disasters.

Hazus

Hazus is a standardised metodology and software developed by the US Federal Emergency Management Agency, FEMA. Hazus is used to estimate potential losses from disasters brought about by natural events. Hazus contains models for estimation of losses from earthquakes, floods and hurricanes.

Hazus is used by a number of different organisations and communities in the US and internationally. Hazus is available free of charge and can be downloaded from the FEMA Hazus website. Hazus requires Esri ArcGIS and the Spatial Analyst addon.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency, FEMA, has developed the HAZUS methodology and open scource software tools. The methodology combines probabilistic and deterministic models (altitude models, hydrological models, exposure and damage functions) to assess physical damage and economical losses for flood exposure.

The aim of this postdoc project is to analyze the transferability and suitability of the HAZUS methodology and software tools to Sweden. The project is conduced in close collaboration with FEMA and this collaboration will contribute to identify methods, routines and systems that can be transferred to Sweden as well as flaws and shortcomings that should be avoided.

The goal of the project is to increase the possibility of conducting quantitative risk assessments in a transparent manner in Sweden, to decrease the chance of subjective valuations in decision making on risk reducing measures. The project begun in January 2018 and is estimated to finish in December 2019. 

Project presentation at the South Africa - Sweden University Research & Innovation Week

One important aspect of the project is communication of the project and its result. The 17th May the project will be presented at the South Africa - Sweden University Research and Innovation Week in Pretoria, South Africa.

- What makes this forum relevant for my project is that it facilitates collaboration. Not only between Sweden and South Africa, but also between governmental agencies, the private sector and universities. The forum also has a focus on the global sustainability goals and my research has a clear connection to several, not the least goal 11, Sustainable Cities and Communities and goal 13, Climate Action, says Tonje.

Project collaboration with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, FEMA

During the fall 2018 I got the opportunity to meet Hazus developers project work will be conducted together with HAZUS developers on site in Denver, USA. As a follow up on this two experts on disaster modeling, Jesse Rozelle and Casey Zuzak from FEMA visited me at the Centre for climate and safety during the fall 2019.

- The assistance and expertise of Rozelle and Zuzak is of greatest importance for my work, says Tonje. FEMA has come a long way in the development of methodology and tools in my field of research and has also been very open in sharing their knowledge.

As part of the visit in Sweden a seminar day on modeling of societal exposure and vulnerability to natural hazards was arranged within the frames of the research projekt.

Dokument

 

Author: andrpett@kau.se
Last update: 2020-10-23